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Modifications, bugfix to theoretical posteriors. (Bug fix: eliminated discontinuity in prior distribution) 

git-svn-id: file:///humgen/gsa-scr1/gsa-engineering/svn_contents/trunk@5239 348d0f76-0448-11de-a6fe-93d51630548a
This commit is contained in:
chartl 2011-02-14 19:47:34 +00:00
parent b8c3c3ae6e
commit a081f3b94f
1 changed files with 77 additions and 10 deletions
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87
python/theoPost.py
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@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ def neutral(x):
def twoState(x):
if ( x < 0.04 ):
return -1.5*math.log10(x)
return -1.5*math.log10(x) + 0.5*math.log10(0.04)
else:
return -1.0*math.log10(x)
@ -114,13 +114,80 @@ def resampleProbability(logshape,ic,ac,ns,ac_new,ns_new):
newshape = lambda y: math.pow(10,logpost_normed(y) + logbinomial(ac_new, 2*ns_new, y))
return adaptiveSimpson(newshape,ic.start,ic.stop,ic.err,ic.num_ints)
sim_ic = IntegrationCollection(4e-7,0.999,1e-200,16)
def getPost(logshape,ic,ac,ns):
global norm_cache
logpost = lambda x: logshape(x) + logbinomial(ac,2*ns,x)
if ( norm_cache[1] == None or norm_cache[0] != (ac,ns,logshape) ):
print("Caching posterior norm")
norm_cache = ((ac,ns,logshape),math.log10(adaptiveSimpson(lambda v: math.pow(10,logpost(v)),ic.start,ic.stop,ic.err,ic.num_ints)))
return lambda v: logpost(v) - norm_cache[1]
sim_ic = IntegrationCollection(5e-8,0.999,1e-2000,22)
sys.setrecursionlimit(int(2e6))
neutral_post = map( lambda v: resampleProbability(neutral,sim_ic,1,900,v,900), range(0,21) )
twostate_post = list(map( lambda v: resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,1,900,v,900), range(0,21) ))
g = open("n_ts.txt",'w')
idx = 0
for e in neutral_post:
g.write(str(idx))
g.write("\t"+str(e)+"\t"+str(twostate_post[idx])+"\n")
idx += 1
#neutral_post = map( lambda v: resampleProbability(neutral,sim_ic,1,900,v,900), range(0,21) )
#twostate_post = list(map( lambda v: resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,1,900,v,900), range(0,21) ))
#g = open("n_ts.txt",'w')
#idx = 0
#for e in neutral_post:
# g.write(str(idx))
# g.write("\t"+str(e)+"\t"+str(twostate_post[idx])+"\n")
# idx += 1
DO_1 = False
if ( DO_1 ):
eomiautism_ac_1 = 317763
eomiautism_ac_2 = 78844
eomiautism_ac_3p = 239526 # all of these go on chip by default
new_set = 10000-917-998
num_unseen_sites = 125*new_set
unseen_unseen = resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,0,917+998,0,new_set)
unseen_1 = resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,0,917+998,1,new_set)/(1-unseen_unseen)
unseen_2 = resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,0,917+998,2,new_set)/(1-unseen_unseen)
ac1_unseen = resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,1,917+998,0,new_set)
ac1_ac1 = resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,1,917+998,1,new_set)
ac2_unseen = resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,2,917+998,0,new_set)
total = 636133 + num_unseen_sites
ac1 = unseen_1*num_unseen_sites + ac1_unseen*eomiautism_ac_1
ac2 = unseen_2*num_unseen_sites + ac1_unseen*eomiautism_ac_1 + ac2_unseen*eomiautism_ac_2
print("\t".join(map(lambda u: str(u), [unseen_unseen,unseen_1,unseen_2])))
print("\t".join(map(lambda u: str(u), [total,ac1,ac2])))
ea_ns = 343877
ea_ns_ac1 = 204223
ea_ns_ac2 = 42280
ns_new_ac1 = ea_ns_ac1*ac1_unseen + unseen_1*num_unseen_sites*(1.7/(1+1.7))
ns_new_ac2 = ea_ns_ac2*ac2_unseen + unseen_2*num_unseen_sites*(1.4/(1+1.4))
ns_new_total = ea_ns + ns_new_ac1 + ns_new_ac2 + (num_unseen_sites*(1-unseen_1-unseen_2))*(0.6/(1+0.6))
print("\t".join(map(lambda u: str(u), [ns_new_total,ns_new_ac1,ns_new_ac2])))
print(1-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,2,1000,0,10000)-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,2,1000,1,10000))
print(1-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,1,100,0,2000)-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,1,100,1,2000))
print(1-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,2,100,0,2000)-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,2,100,1,2000))
print(1-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,20,1000,0,2000)-resampleProbability(twoState,sim_ic,20,1000,1,2000))
def emitPosterior(ac):
post_ac = getPost(twoState,sim_ic,ac,10000)
o = open("post_%d.txt" % ac,'w')
pt = sim_ic.start
while ( pt < 0.2 ):
o.write("%e\t%e\n" % (pt,post_ac(pt)))
pt = 1.015*pt
o.close()
emitPosterior(2)
emitPosterior(3)
emitPosterior(10)
emitPosterior(25)
#o = open("test2s.txt",'w')
#pt = sim_ic.start
#while ( pt<0.4 ):
# o.write("%e\t%e\n" % (pt,twoState(pt)))
# pt = 1.015*pt
#o.close()