diff --git a/analysis/depristo/distributedGATK/model.R b/analysis/depristo/distributedGATK/model.R
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..572edb596
--- /dev/null
+++ b/analysis/depristo/distributedGATK/model.R
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+JOB_START_RATE = 0.1 # chance of starting is 0.1
+WORK_UNITS = 100
+WORK_RATE = 1
+N_TICKS = 300
+
+ticks <- 1:N_TICKS
+
+# the probability that a job starts at exactly tick i
+pThreadStartAtTick <- function(i) {
+	dexp(i, JOB_START_RATE)
+}
+
+jobDoneByI <- function(i) {
+	return(sapply(i - ticks, function(x) max(x, 0)) * WORK_RATE)
+	#return(pCompleteAtI(i, pStarts, ticks))
+}
+
+pThreadDoneByI <- function(i) {
+	pStarts <- pThreadStartAtTick(ticks)
+	workDoneByThreadStartingAtI <- jobDoneByI(i)
+	fracDone <- workDoneByThreadStartingAtI / WORK_UNITS
+	doneAtI <- fracDone >= 1
+	return(sum(pStarts * doneAtI))
+}
+
+pThreadsDoneByI <- function(i, nThreads) {
+	pDone <- rep(0, N_TICKS)
+	for ( thread : 1:nThreads )
+		pDone <- pPrevThreadsNotDoneAtI(pDone, i) + pThreadDoneByI(i)
+}
+
+#plot(ticks, workDoneByI(100))
+plot(ticks, sapply(ticks, function(i) pThreadDoneByI(i)))
+