A better (less overflow-y) implementation of multinomialProbability().
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@ -91,30 +91,35 @@ public class MathUtils {
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*
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*
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* where xi represents the number of times outcome i was observed, n is the number of total observations, and
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* where xi represents the number of times outcome i was observed, n is the number of total observations, and
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* pi represents the probability of the i-th outcome to occur. In this implementation, the value of n is
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* pi represents the probability of the i-th outcome to occur. In this implementation, the value of n is
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* inferred as the sum over i of xi;
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* inferred as the sum over i of xi.
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*
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*
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* @param x an int[] of counts, where each element represents the number of times a certain outcome was observed
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* @param x an int[] of counts, where each element represents the number of times a certain outcome was observed
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* @param p a double[] of probabilities, where each element represents the probability a given outcome can occur
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* @param p a double[] of probabilities, where each element represents the probability a given outcome can occur
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* @return the multinomial probability of the specified configuration.
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* @return the multinomial probability of the specified configuration.
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*/
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*/
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public static double multinomialProbability(int[] x, double[] p) {
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public static double multinomialProbability(int[] x, double[] p) {
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int n = 0;
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// In order to avoid overflow in computing large factorials in the multinomial
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for ( int obsCount : x ) { n += obsCount; }
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// coefficient, we split the calculation up into the product of a bunch of
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double nfact = Arithmetic.factorial(n);
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// binomial coefficients.
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double obsfact = 1.0, probs = 1.0, totalprob = 0.0;
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double multinomialCoefficient = 1.0;
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for (int i = 0; i < x.length; i++) {
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int n = 0;
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for (int j = 0; j <= i; j++) { n += x[j]; }
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double multinomialTerm = Arithmetic.binomial(n, x[i]);
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multinomialCoefficient *= multinomialTerm;
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}
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double probs = 1.0, totalprob = 0.0;
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for (int obsCountsIndex = 0; obsCountsIndex < x.length; obsCountsIndex++) {
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for (int obsCountsIndex = 0; obsCountsIndex < x.length; obsCountsIndex++) {
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double ofact = Arithmetic.factorial(x[obsCountsIndex]);
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obsfact *= ofact;
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probs *= Math.pow(p[obsCountsIndex], x[obsCountsIndex]);
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probs *= Math.pow(p[obsCountsIndex], x[obsCountsIndex]);
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totalprob += p[obsCountsIndex];
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totalprob += p[obsCountsIndex];
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}
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}
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assert(MathUtils.compareDoubles(totalprob, 1.0, 0.01) == 0);
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assert(MathUtils.compareDoubles(totalprob, 1.0, 0.01) == 0);
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return (nfact/obsfact)*probs;
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return multinomialCoefficient*probs;
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}
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}
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}
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}
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